The High Price Tag of Pushing Boundaries: How Much Does a Quantum Computer Really Cost?
While the promise of quantum computing seems limitless, today’s leading quantum systems come at a sizable price.
Just how much does a quantum computer cost, and what factors determine these high figures?
This deep dive article explores the current state of quantum computer pricing and cost projections as this pioneering technology progresses.
The earliest demonstrations of quantum’s potential date back to landmark experiments in the 1980s.
It has taken several more decades of intense research and engineering to develop quantum computing from theoretical speculation into physical machines.
Companies like D Wave and IBM have led the way in constructing the first quantum prototypes, though achieving even basic quantum behaviors posed immense technical hurdles.
D Wave’s Early Quantum Annealing Systems Cost Millions:
One of the quantum pioneers, Canadian firm D Wave began developing quantum annealing computers in the early 2000s.
Their initial systems housed just a few qubits yet still carried enormous price tags in the ballpark of $15 to 20 million according to company statements.
Achieving stable quantum effects required breakthroughs like fabricating precise superconducting materials, maintaining millikelvin operating temperatures with large dilution refrigerators, and developing control electronics far beyond any consumer tech.
By the late 2010s, D Wave had scaled its technology to quantum chips containing over 2000 qubits.
While complex error correction was still missing, these second generation processors showed quantum speedup on select optimization problems.
The larger scale also translated to higher costs estimated at around $12 to 15 million per machine based on public contracts.
Only deep pocketed partners could afford to work with these one of a kind prototypes at the leading edge of quantum engineering.
IBM’s Early Quantum Processors Also Cost Around $20 Million:
Another pioneering outfit, IBM unveiled its first quantum integrated circuit dubbed “IBM Q System One” containing 5 superconducting qubits in 2017.
While tiny by today’s standards, just fabricating functional qubits as well as integrating classical control equipment marked a watershed moment.
Subsequent 20 qubit and 50 qubit prototypes followed, with IBM estimating a cost of approximately $20 million to develop their initial 20 qubit quantum processor according to analysts.
Reaching even 20 coherent qubits required miniaturizing quantum circuits 100,000 times smaller than a human hair, implementing elaborate error correction schematics, and constructing specialized labs and tools to integrate control units operating at millikelvin temperatures.
It’s little wonder these early forays into manufacturing complex quantum systems incurred budgets in the tens of millions.
The technical learnings gained at this phase would prove invaluable for future affordable quantum access.
Mid Scale Quantum Systems Lower to Millions of Dollars:
In the late 2010s, other startups joined IBM and D Wave in developing programmable quantum processors.
Companies like Rigetti, IonQ and Honeywell all began commercializing their unique qubits whether superconducting, trapped ion or other approaches.
With each following year bringing exponential transistor like scaling, component costs decreased substantially.
By 2020, D Wave’s latest Pegasus processor supported over 5000 qubits while IBM demonstrated their first 50 qubit quantum computer named “Eagle” the same year.
Public comments placed the purchase prices of universal processors from IBM, Rigetti and others containing 50 to 100 logical qubits in the range of $1 to 3 million dollars.
For example, the German government invested over $2 million USD in procuring a 28 qubit Rigetti Aspen processor for research use at the Forschungszentrum Jülich in 2021.
Accessing these “mid range” machines provided academic teams hands on experience applying quantum algorithms to real problems across chemistry, physics and materials science.
Cloud Quantum Computing Further Lowers Barrier to Entry:
While having one’s own dedicated quantum processor is still prohibitively costly for most, major quantum computing firms now provide time shared cloud access to their latest devices. On platforms such as IBM’s IBM Quantum, experimenters can remotely run simulations and real quantum circuits for pricing like $X per computation hour or annual plans for around $XX,000.
For perspective, research groups at the University of Toronto, University of Maryland and elsewhere have run extensive cloud based projects on IBM Quantum for total budgets in the ballpark of $50,000 to $100,000 USD per year based on published reports.
Such affordable periodic use gives thousands of scientists and developers worldwide their first quantum explorations.
In effect, the cloud has opened up quantum testing and algorithm prototyping even for photonics startups or materials research labs traditionally far outside the multi million dollar quantum realm.
Some other cloud key players providing pay as you go quantum access include:
- D Wave via its Leap platform starting at $15,000/year
- Amazon Braket charging $0.10 to $5 per execution minute
- Rigetti Quantum Cloud Services with pricing from $0.50/qubit hour
This democratization of quantum pioneered by major tech firms will prove invaluable for incubating thousands of quantum collaborations through the research stage.
Over time, cloud quantum’s falling prices may also train a new generation of quantum developers.
Factors Underlying High Quantum Computer Costs:
But why are today’s quantum systems so extremely expensive despite scaling? Several core technical challenges inherent to engineering the quantum realm contribute greatly to pricing:
Qubit Count and Connectivity Fabricating just one stable, coherent qubit remains a technological tour de force. The far higher standards for dozens or thousands of fully interconnected qubits escalate complexity exponentially.
Quantum Volume This performance metric assesses not just the number of qubits, but their processing quality accounting for error rates, gate fidelities, coherence times and more. Higher figures require immense component integration to achieve.
Precision Materials Science Fabricating superconducting detectors, resonators, lenses and other exotic quantum devices relies on extremely pure materials like aluminum stabilized to within one atomic layer thickness according to specifications more stringent than consumer electronics.
Millikelvin Refrigeration Maintaining operating temperatures near absolute zero necessary for qubits involves large scale equipment like dilution refrigerators able to handle electronics payloads while dissipating micro watts of heat is no simple task.
Error Correction Overheads The computing power boost from quantum error correction mechanisms comes at the cost of requiring far more physical hardware than available logical qubits at the system’s current technology level.
Significant resources must be devoted to developing better codes and algorithms as the industry matures.
Cost Predictions: Quantum Computing on Declining Trajectory:
Encouragingly, most quantum computing experts forecast costs will drop rapidly with time similar to trends seen for classical computing hardware.
Some analysts draw parallels to the price decreases governed by Moore’s Law that revolutionized semiconductors.
Between 2005 and 2012, laser cooled ion trap quantum processors halved in cost every 1.5 years hinting at a high performance “quantum Moore’s Law”.
Numerous technology roadmaps including those from IBM, Rigetti and others predict milestones like the following over the next 10 to 30 years:
FAQ
Q. How much does a quantum computer cost to make?
A. By most estimates, a single qubit costs around $10K.
Q. Can we buy a quantum computer?
A. Yes, it’s possible to buy a quantum computer.
Q. Does NASA use quantum computers?
A. NASA’s QuAIL team has extensive experience utilizing near term quantum computing hardware.
Q. How much does Google’s quantum computer cost?
A. Commercial quantum computers like D Wave One with 50 qubits cost $10,000,000.
Q. Will quantum computers replace PCs?
A. Quantum computers are not likely to replace classical computers for decades, if ever.
Conclusion:
With growing global investments now exceeding $15 billion yearly and thousands of research teams pushing boundaries, the landscape for quantum computing is promising but still highly uncertain.
While current million-dollar devices remain confined to specialized labs, the near future holds improved systems available in the hundreds of thousands price range suitable for limited industry exploration.
By the 2030s, quantum computers reaching thousands of logical qubits and matching classical high performance nodes are projected to debut in the $50,000 to $150,000 cost region within reach of dedicated national research budgets or corporate R&D divisions.
But full accessibility for individuals or small businesses may be needed until the 2040s or beyond according to longer term forecasts.
